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Theory on unique probabilities out in Cognitive Science
Max Lotstein, Phil Johnson-Laird and I published a paper in Cognitive Science on how people estimate unique probabilities, like the probability that Jeb Bush will be elected US President in 2016. The theory hinges on how mental models of beliefs are used to update iconic representations of probability. Here’s a link and here’s the abstract:… Continue reading
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LRW 8 presentation on conditional probabilities
I recently gave a talk on the conditional probabilities of unique events (Khemlani, Lotstein, & Johnson-Laird, 2014) at the 8th London Reasoning Workshop at Birkbeck College. You can download the presentation here. Continue reading
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Monsters for science
Earlier this year, Abby Sussman, Danny Oppenheimer and I published a paper on latent scope biases in higher cognition. One of the fun things about writing the paper is that to prepare the materials for the experiment, we worked with Mike Lariccia, a friend who’s also a fantastic illustrator of graphic novels. Continue reading
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Paper on kinematic mental simulations out in PNAS
I recently published a paper on kinematic mental simulations in PNAS. The paper is with Monica Bucciarelli, Robert Mackiewicz, and Phil Johnson-Laird, and it examines how reasoners without any background in computer science or logic can construct mental “algorithms” in a systematic way, akin to recipes or driving directions. Continue reading
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Summer presentation schedule
I’ll be giving presentations at various conferences over the summer, so I’ve provided my schedule below. Stop by if you’re around! Continue reading
About Me

I am a Senior Cognitive Scientist at the US Naval Research Laboratory in Washington, DC. I run the Reasoning Lab at NRL, where we study and build simulations of the mental processes that underlie everyday human reasoning.
Recent Posts
- Paper on latent scope biases now out in Cognition
- Research on “chases” published in CogSci 2024 Proceedings
- Symposium on explanatory reasoning at ICT 2024
- Paper in Cognitive Development on how children use the word “want”
- New feature in The Reasoner on the Handbook of Rationality
- PNAS paper on truth values outside logic
- Research on mental state reasoning published at CogSci 2023
- JEP: General paper on temporal explanations
- 📄 Now in Psych Review: Computational model of 200+ reasoning problems
- 📄 Cognitive Science paper on reasoning about desires