๐Ÿ“„ Paper on norms and future causation out in Cognitive Science

In a project lead by Paul Henne (Lake Forest College), we recently published a paper in Cognitive Science about how norms affect prospective causal judgments, i.e., judgments about whether a particular situation can cause a future event. Here’s the abstract:

People more frequently select norm-violating factors, relative to norm-conforming ones, as the cause of some outcome. Until recently, this abnormal-selection effect has been studied using retrospective vignette-based paradigms. We use a novel set of video stimuli to investigate this effect for prospective causal judgmentsโ€”that is, judgments about the cause of some future outcome. Four experiments show that people more frequently select norm-violating factors, relative to norm-conforming ones, as the cause of some future outcome. We show that the abnormal-selection effects are not primarily explained by the perception of agency (Experiment 4). We discuss these results in relation to recent efforts to model causal judgment.

and here’s a link to the paper.